Developing a 3D mechanistic model for examining factors contributing to harmful blooms of Margalefidinium polykrikoides in a temperate estuary

Blooms of Margalefidinium (previously Cochlodinium) polykrikoides occur almost annually in summer the lower Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries (e.g., James York Rivers). The Lafayette River, a sub-tributary has been recognized as an initiation location for blooms this region. timing bloom varies interannually, ranging from late June to early August. To fully understand critical environmental factors controlling interactions between physical biological processes, numerical module simulating M. was developed with focus on initiation. also includes life cycle behavioral strategies such mixotrophy, vertical migration, cyst dynamics grazing suppression. Parameterizations these behaviors were assigned based published laboratory culture experiments. coupled 3D physical-biogeochemical model River that examined contribution each factor strategy development. Model simulation results highlight importance mixotrophy maintaining high growth rates suggest while many contribute process, temperature, transport germination are three dominant interannual variability